Latvia’s parliamentary election is being shaped by two immediate concerns: security on the country’s border with Russia and the pressure of rising living costs. The vote matters beyond Latvia because the Baltic state is a key part of NATO’s eastern flank and has maintained broad domestic support for Ukraine.
Polling stations opened on Saturday, with partial results expected later that evening and preliminary official results due on Sunday. The election could weaken the current centre-right governing coalition and force negotiations over a new parliamentary majority.
Latvia election puts security and household finances at the centre
Latvia’s proximity to Russia has made defence policy a central issue for voters. The country was ruled by Moscow for much of the 20th century and now plays an important role in NATO’s eastern defensive posture.
There is broad political support for maintaining high military spending and continuing assistance to Ukraine, although some parties have challenged that consensus. Analysts expect defence and national security to remain priorities regardless of which parties ultimately form the next government.
For many voters, however, security is competing with daily economic pressures. Concerns include:
- the cost of living and low wages;
- slow economic growth;
- pressure on public finances;
- healthcare provision; and
- regional inequality and the loss of young people from smaller communities.
Governing coalition faces a difficult election
The current coalition consists of the centre-right United List, New Unity, the Union of Greens and Farmers, and the nationalist National Alliance. Polling suggests the bloc may not retain power in its current form after the election.
The United List, led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, is expected to remain the largest party. A strong first-place finish would not necessarily guarantee a continuation of the existing government, since coalition arithmetic may require cooperation with parties outside the current governing group.
Two populist parties have attracted support by focusing on economic dissatisfaction. Sovereign Power has criticised assistance to Ukraine and higher military spending, while Latvia First has campaigned on conservative themes and promises of economic revival.
Latvia First could become particularly important in coalition negotiations if it wins enough seats to hold the balance between larger parties. Sovereign Power is considered more isolated politically, making its participation in a future government less likely even if it performs strongly.
Regional inequality is a major concern
Latvia’s economic divide is especially visible between the capital, Riga, and the country’s eastern regions. European Commission figures cited in the election debate show that GDP per person around Riga reached roughly the European Union average in 2024, while other regions remained below half of that level.
The gap is most pronounced in Latgale, Latvia’s easternmost region. The area has experienced depopulation, limited employment opportunities and a shortage of younger residents. Daugavpils, the country’s second-largest city, has a predominantly Russian-speaking population and has become a symbol of the challenges facing the region.
For residents there, economic concerns often outweigh questions of linguistic or cultural identity. The availability of jobs, transport, education and medical services is likely to influence voting decisions as much as the country’s foreign-policy direction.
Russian-speaking voters are no longer a single bloc
Russian-speaking Latvians account for around 35% of the population, but they no longer vote as a unified political group. The Harmony party, which previously attracted much of this electorate, lost its parliamentary presence in 2022 and is not expected to return in significant strength.
Analysts caution against treating Russian-speaking voters as a single bloc. Economic and social issues have become increasingly important, while identity politics remains only one factor in voting behaviour.
This shift could affect the balance between established parties and newer populist movements. Parties that offer economic remedies may gain support in communities where voters feel that public services and employment opportunities have deteriorated.
What happens after the vote?
Partial results are expected on Saturday evening, followed by preliminary official results on Sunday. The distribution of seats will determine whether the existing coalition can be reconstructed or whether a new alliance must be negotiated.
The key questions will include:
- whether the United List remains clearly ahead of its rivals;
- how many seats Latvia First wins;
- whether Sovereign Power enters parliament with enough strength to influence policy; and
- whether the current coalition parties can agree on a new governing arrangement.
Until coalition talks conclude, the election result alone will not establish Latvia’s next government. Foreign policy, defence spending, support for Ukraine and economic priorities are likely to be central issues in any negotiations.
Why the result matters in Europe
Latvia’s election has wider significance for European security and EU politics. The country is part of both the European Union and NATO, borders Russia and has been among the states most focused on deterrence and support for Ukraine.
At the same time, the result will show how economic frustration may affect political support for that security agenda. A government must respond to concerns over living standards while maintaining Latvia’s established role in European and transatlantic security policy.
The immediate takeaway from Latvia’s vote is that national security and household finances are closely connected in the campaign. The final parliamentary balance—and the coalition negotiations that follow—will determine whether Latvia maintains its current political direction or introduces a more complicated governing arrangement.
