Ethiopia Tigray crisis has entered a potentially decisive phase after the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) said it had temporarily withdrawn from Mekelle, the regional capital, as fighting with federal forces moved closer to the city. Residents reported that pro-government troops were now in control of Mekelle, while mobile phone services appeared to have returned in some areas.
The development has renewed fears that Ethiopia’s northern conflict could expand beyond Tigray and further destabilise the Horn of Africa. It also comes as civilians are still recovering from the devastating civil war that ended in 2022 with an African Union-backed peace agreement.
Ethiopia Tigray crisis brings renewed fighting to Mekelle
The TPLF said its decision to relocate forces was intended to reduce risks to civilians. However, the withdrawal marks a significant change in control of Mekelle, where pro-government forces are now reportedly present.
Fighting in recent weeks has spread across parts of Tigray, Afar and Amhara. The conflict involves federal government forces, allied fighters and armed groups opposed to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration. The precise military situation remains difficult to verify because insecurity and disrupted communications have restricted access to several areas.
The renewed violence is especially concerning for residents who endured a two-year war marked by mass displacement, severe shortages and the collapse of essential services. The earlier conflict ended in 2022 under the Pretoria Agreement, but relations between the federal government and Tigray authorities have deteriorated in recent months.
Why the withdrawal matters
The TPLF remains the dominant political and military force in Tigray, but its movement away from Mekelle could alter the balance of power in the region. The group has cited civilian protection, while federal forces appear to be seeking control of a strategically important urban centre.
- Mekelle is Tigray’s regional capital and a key administrative hub.
- Fighting near the city could disrupt aid deliveries and medical services.
- Large-scale displacement could place further pressure on neighbouring regions.
- The conflict risks undermining the fragile Pretoria peace process.
Regional tensions raise fears of a wider Horn of Africa conflict
The Ethiopia Tigray crisis is unfolding alongside a sharp deterioration in relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The neighbouring countries have severed diplomatic ties after Addis Ababa accused Asmara of supporting a newly formed rebel alliance. Eritrea has rejected the allegation.
Ethiopia has also accused Egypt of backing rebel groups, an allegation that has triggered diplomatic expulsions between the two countries. These disputes add a dangerous international dimension to an already volatile conflict.
The new alliance reportedly includes the TPLF, the Fano militia from Amhara and several other armed movements. Its stated aim is to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government from power. If the alliance becomes more coordinated, fighting could spread across ethnic and regional lines, increasing the risk of a prolonged national crisis.
International calls for restraint
The United States has urged all sides to show restraint and pursue dialogue. The appeal came before a diplomatic meeting in Egypt involving leaders from countries neighbouring Ethiopia.
The United Nations has also warned that worsening insecurity is seriously disrupting humanitarian operations in northern Ethiopia. It has called on every party to guarantee safe and unrestricted access for aid workers delivering food, medicine and other essential support.
The humanitarian consequences could be severe. The previous civil war was among the deadliest conflicts of the 21st century, with an African Union mediator estimating that about 600,000 people died. The conflict also pushed parts of Tigray towards famine and left communities facing extensive damage to homes, hospitals and infrastructure.
Humanitarian access remains the immediate concern
For civilians in Mekelle and surrounding areas, the most urgent issues are safety, access to healthcare and reliable communications. Any further fighting could interrupt electricity, water supplies, transport routes and humanitarian deliveries.
Residents are also likely to face heightened uncertainty as military positions change. Restoring mobile phone services in parts of Mekelle may help families communicate, but it does not necessarily indicate that the security situation has stabilised.
Observers say the parties must avoid attacks on populated areas and return to negotiations. Without a renewed political process, the conflict could deepen mistrust created by years of violence and make a lasting settlement more difficult.
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What happens next in the Ethiopia Tigray crisis?
The immediate priority is preventing further fighting around Mekelle and ensuring that aid agencies can reach civilians. Diplomatic efforts involving Ethiopia’s neighbours may help reduce the risk of outside involvement, but progress will depend on whether the federal government, the TPLF and allied armed groups are willing to reopen meaningful dialogue.
The withdrawal from Mekelle does not represent a clear end to the conflict. Instead, it signals a new and uncertain stage in Ethiopia’s northern crisis. Continued international pressure, civilian protection and unrestricted humanitarian access will be essential if the region is to avoid another prolonged war.
Key takeaway: The Ethiopia Tigray crisis has intensified around Mekelle, with federal forces reportedly taking control of the regional capital. Unless diplomacy succeeds quickly, the renewed conflict could worsen Ethiopia’s humanitarian emergency and destabilise the wider Horn of Africa.
