Finland has published a national roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels as COP31 discussions in Antalya expose deep divisions over how quickly countries can reduce coal, oil and gas use. The move comes as leaders face warnings that the world is on course to overshoot the 1.5°C climate target.
The Finnish plan does not set a legally binding deadline for ending fossil fuel use. However, it places Finland among a growing group of countries developing domestic strategies for a cleaner energy system, while negotiations at the United Nations climate summit continue to avoid a formal commitment on fossil fuel phaseout.
Fossil fuel transition remains difficult at COP31
The first week of COP31 has highlighted the political difficulty of putting fossil fuels at the centre of climate negotiations. Coal, oil and gas are the largest contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions, yet governments have so far focused more readily on electrification, renewable energy and energy security than on a direct pledge to end fossil fuel production and consumption.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told leaders in Antalya on 11 November that the world had reached a “global tipping point”. She pointed to extreme weather and wildfires and said recent United Nations analysis showed that the 1.5°C target was at risk of being exceeded.
Her COP31 priorities included faster electrification and stronger international partnerships to build clean economies. Climate campaigners criticised the absence of a direct reference to transitioning away from fossil fuels, arguing that electrification must be connected to a clear reduction in coal, oil and gas use.
What Finland’s roadmap proposes
Finland released its roadmap during COP31, following similar national initiatives associated with France, Germany and the Netherlands. Brazil, which helped advance an international roadmap process before transferring the COP presidency, is also developing a domestic plan.
Finland already generates more than 96 per cent of its electricity from non-fossil sources. Its wider energy challenge is more complex because of energy-intensive industry, long travel distances and substantial heating demand during its cold winters.
In 2025, wood fuels represented 28 per cent of Finland’s total energy consumption. Nuclear power accounted for 27 per cent, while fossil fuels made up 18 per cent. Other domestic sources include hydropower, wind, solar, waste, peat and heat pumps.
Finland’s existing objective is to become carbon neutral by 2035. The new roadmap supports that direction but does not establish a legally binding date for a complete fossil fuel phaseout. Its development follows the Santa Marta process, an international effort to encourage countries to plan for a transition beyond fossil fuels.
Why national roadmaps matter
UN climate agreements require consensus among almost 200 parties, making ambitious language difficult to secure. National roadmaps can therefore provide a way for individual governments to set out policy priorities even when a global agreement is delayed.
Climate policy analysts have welcomed the publication of Finland’s plan but stressed that roadmaps need to lead to faster implementation rather than simply restate existing commitments. The central questions include:
- How quickly renewable electricity and energy efficiency can replace fossil fuel use;
- How industrial sectors can reduce emissions while remaining competitive;
- How households can afford heating and transport changes;
- How governments will finance the transition; and
- Whether national plans will include measurable interim targets.
Climate finance is central to the COP31 negotiations
Developing countries have repeatedly argued that fossil fuel phaseout cannot be separated from access to finance and technology. Türkiye’s energy minister said developing economies need support to expand renewable and nuclear power, warning that calls to reduce coal and other fossil fuels are difficult to implement without the means to produce replacement electricity.
Finance is expected to be one of the most contested issues before COP31 closes on 20 November. At COP29 in Baku in 2024, developed countries agreed to mobilise at least $300 billion a year for developing countries by 2035, within a broader $1.3 trillion annual target involving public and private sources.
At COP30, governments agreed to pursue a substantial increase in adaptation finance by 2035, but questions remained over the baseline, funding responsibilities and the balance between grants and loans. A United Nations Environment Programme assessment published before COP31 indicated that even a tripling of current international public adaptation finance would cover only part of developing countries’ needs.
Electrification pledge attracts support and criticism
Another major COP31 discussion concerns the “35-by-35” goal: increasing the share of global energy demand supplied by electricity from approximately 23 per cent today to 35 per cent by 2035. More than a dozen countries and several small island states have publicly backed the objective.
Electrification can reduce emissions by replacing fossil fuel technologies with electric alternatives, such as electric vehicles replacing diesel cars. But the climate benefit depends on how electricity is produced. If demand is met by new gas- or coal-fired generation, electrification alone will not deliver the required emissions cuts.
Critics have also warned that growing electricity demand from data centres and other industries could encourage new investment in fossil fuel infrastructure. Renewable generation, grid upgrades, storage and efficiency measures will be necessary if the pledge is to support a genuine transition.
What happens next at COP31?
Negotiators will continue discussions on climate finance, adaptation, energy and implementation before the summit ends on 20 November. A formal global agreement on fossil fuel phaseout remains difficult because the issue is not included as a standalone item on the official agenda.
Finland’s roadmap is therefore a national policy signal rather than a new global rule. Its significance will depend on whether it produces enforceable measures, investment decisions and emissions reductions. For the European Union, the debate reinforces the link between renewable energy, industrial competitiveness, energy security and the bloc’s long-term climate objectives.
The key takeaway: Finland has added momentum to national planning for a fossil fuel transition, but COP31’s outcome will depend on whether governments can connect electrification with cleaner power, credible finance and measurable reductions in coal, oil and gas use.
