The EU enlargement process is entering a decisive phase as the European Commission prepares progress reports and new roadmaps for the bloc’s most advanced candidates. Montenegro, Albania, Moldova and Ukraine are expected to receive particular attention, while North Macedonia and Georgia risk falling further behind.
The developments are expected to shape the next stage of European Union enlargement and clarify how candidate countries can move from negotiations towards closer integration. The Commission’s annual package is due to set out the reforms and milestones required during the coming year.
Commission prepares new roadmaps for EU enlargement frontrunners
The European Commission is expected to publish its annual enlargement package on Wednesday, including country progress reports and roadmaps for Montenegro, Albania, Moldova and Ukraine. These documents are intended to be updated each year and will identify the steps candidates must complete to continue advancing.
The roadmaps are also expected to support a more gradual approach to integration. That could involve closer cooperation with candidates before full membership, although the source material does not indicate that any country is close to formal accession or that membership has been approved.
The Commission’s approach reflects a widening difference between the frontrunners and countries whose accession efforts have made less progress. North Macedonia and Georgia are identified as candidates at risk of losing ground, while the four frontrunners are expected to receive more structured engagement from Brussels.
How the frontrunners compare
- Montenegro: Seen as the closest candidate to completing the accession process, although unresolved bilateral issues with Croatia remain a challenge.
- Albania: Considered one of the strongest performers, but domestic protests linked to a planned resort in a protected area have added political pressure.
- Moldova: Has advanced rapidly, requiring the Commission to redirect internal resources to keep pace with its reforms.
- Ukraine: Has made formal progress despite Russia’s full-scale invasion, but faces complex negotiations over reforms, agriculture and future integration.
Montenegro remains closest to EU membership
Montenegro is widely viewed as the leading candidate in the current enlargement race. Its government is continuing reforms with the stated aim of becoming the European Union’s 28th member by 2028.
However, progress has been complicated by bilateral questions with Croatia. The disputes are connected to the difficult legacy of the Yugoslav Wars of the 1990s. Montenegrin officials say they are holding intensified discussions with Croatia and expect the outstanding matters to be resolved.
The accession treaty being discussed for Montenegro could also become an important model for future enlargement. The Commission has proposed institutional safeguards for new member states, and those arrangements are being considered in connection with Montenegro’s treaty.
Ukraine’s accession bid faces strategic and practical hurdles
Ukraine’s application is among the most politically significant in the EU enlargement process. Kyiv launched its membership bid after Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, and the country’s progress is closely linked to the wider European response to the war.
Ukraine’s Representative to the EU, Taras Kachka, said Kyiv was implementing the reforms needed for membership despite the security situation. He acknowledged that future negotiations could be complex, particularly because of Ukraine’s size, agricultural capacity and the challenges created by the conflict.
Ukraine is still expected to open all negotiating clusters before the end of the year, according to the source material. Opening negotiating clusters is an important procedural step, but it does not amount to EU membership. Accession remains dependent on meeting reform requirements and securing agreement from EU member states.
Questions around anti-corruption measures and the future role of Ukrainian agriculture in the single market are likely to remain important. The EU will also need to consider how Ukraine could be integrated institutionally and economically while addressing the consequences of the war.
Moldova advances while other candidates risk falling behind
Moldova has moved quickly through the early stages of its accession process. Its progress has reportedly been so rapid that the European Commission has had to reallocate resources to keep up with the country’s reform work.
That momentum contrasts with the slower progress of some other candidate countries. The anticipated Commission package is expected to highlight the growing gap between the frontrunners and those facing longer-running political or institutional obstacles.
Albania remains near the front of the group, although protests over preparatory work for a luxury resort in a protected area have created a domestic political challenge. The project has been linked to Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of US President Donald Trump.
Why EU enlargement matters
Enlargement is not only a technical process involving chapters, reforms and accession treaties. It is also a major instrument of European foreign policy. The prospect of membership gives the EU influence in neighbouring countries and offers candidates a framework for institutional, economic and democratic reform.
The process also has strategic importance because Brussels is seeking to strengthen its relationship with countries exposed to pressure from Russia. Ukraine and Moldova are particularly important in that context, while the Western Balkans remain central to the EU’s long-term security and political outlook.
At the same time, enlargement creates practical questions for existing member states, including the future shape of EU decision-making, the distribution of funding and the functioning of the single market. Any new accession treaty will therefore need to address both candidate reforms and the EU’s ability to operate with more members.
What happens next?
The European Commission’s upcoming package should provide the clearest near-term assessment of the candidates’ progress. The roadmaps for Montenegro, Albania, Moldova and Ukraine are expected to identify annual milestones and support dedicated dialogues with the frontrunners.
Those documents will not make any country an EU member. Each candidate must continue meeting political, legal and economic requirements, while EU member states retain a decisive role in the accession process.
For Ireland, the enlargement debate matters because any future accession would affect the EU budget, institutional arrangements, trade and agricultural policy. However, the current developments concern candidate progress and negotiations rather than an immediate change to Irish law or membership arrangements.
The central takeaway from the latest EU enlargement update is that the race is becoming more differentiated. Montenegro remains closest to the finish line, Moldova is advancing quickly, Albania is progressing amid domestic pressure, and Ukraine is moving forward under exceptionally difficult conditions. The Commission’s forthcoming reports will show whether that momentum can be converted into concrete negotiating milestones.