Ireland’s ageing population is set to create a major increase in demand for family care, with the number of older people receiving unpaid support projected to rise by between 49 and 58 per cent by 2040. The findings, published by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), highlight growing pressure on families, carers, the HSE and formal care services.
Family care need in Ireland projected to rise sharply
The ESRI report examines how demographic change will affect long-term care in Ireland over the next 14 years. It warns that family carers will remain central to the country’s care system, but that existing arrangements may not be sufficient as the population ages.
Data from Census 2022 shows that almost 300,000 people regularly provided unpaid help or support to a family member or friend. That represents approximately 6 per cent of the population.
The report estimates that 123,802 people aged 50 and over received family care in 2022. By 2040, that figure is expected to increase by between 49 and 58 per cent.
- Almost 300,000 people provided regular unpaid care in Census 2022.
- About 123,802 people aged 50 and over received family care.
- The number receiving family care could rise by 49–58 per cent by 2040.
- The population aged 65–84 is projected to grow by almost 60 per cent.
- The population aged 85 and over is expected to more than double.
Why Ireland’s ageing population matters
The projected rise is linked to the changing age profile of the population. Between 2022 and 2040, the number of people aged 65 to 84 is expected to increase by almost 60 per cent. The population aged 85 and over is projected to more than double.
Older people are more likely to need assistance with daily activities, healthcare, mobility and household tasks. As the number of older people increases, demand will grow across several parts of the care system, including home support, community services, nursing homes and unpaid family assistance.
The ESRI identifies women and people aged between 45 and 64 as the groups most likely to provide family care. These same generations may also become increasingly likely to receive care as they grow older, creating a potential “sandwich generation” pressure between supporting parents, partners and children.
Family carers already provide essential support
Family care remains a foundation of long-term care in Ireland. Relatives and friends often provide regular assistance with meals, transport, medication, personal care and appointments. Their contribution can help people remain at home and connected to their communities.
However, unpaid care can affect employment, income, health and family life. The future challenge is not simply to increase the amount of care available, but to ensure that families are not forced to take on unsustainable responsibilities because formal support is unavailable.
Pressure expected on HSE and formal care services
The ESRI says some of the additional demand is likely to require expanded formal services. These may include paid home care, day services, respite care, community nursing and other supports delivered through the health and social care system.
The report raises a central policy question: how should Ireland meet the growing need for care, and what balance should exist between family support and paid services?
It argues that policy should provide enough financial and practical assistance to make the type and intensity of care a meaningful choice for families. Support must also reflect the needs of the person receiving care, rather than relying on unpaid carers as a default replacement for public services.
- Greater demand for home-care and community-based services.
- More pressure on middle-aged adults providing unpaid support.
- A stronger need for respite, financial and employment protections.
- Increased planning requirements for the HSE and Government.
Government response to the ESRI findings
Minister of State for Older People Kieran O’Donnell said the report reinforced the need to strengthen support for family carers and expand community-based and formal care services.
He said the research would help inform planning by the Department of Health, the HSE, Government departments and community and voluntary organisations. The stated objective is to ensure that Ireland’s health and social care system can respond to future demand.
Report author Sheelah Connolly said demographic change would place increasing pressure on both family carers and formal services during the coming decade and a half. She said policymakers would need to consider how best to support carers while ensuring that sufficient formal services are available.
What happens next for care policy in Ireland?
The report is likely to add to discussion about long-term care planning, carer payments, home support, respite provision and the availability of care workers. It also underlines the importance of preparing services before demographic change creates the greatest pressure.
For families, the practical impact will depend on future decisions about funding, eligibility, access to HSE services and the development of community care. The ESRI findings do not prescribe one model, but they make clear that Ireland will need a combination of family and formal care.
Frequently asked questions
How much could family care need increase in Ireland?
The ESRI projects that the number of people aged 50 and over receiving family care could rise by between 49 and 58 per cent by 2040.
How many people currently provide unpaid care?
Census 2022 recorded almost 300,000 people providing regular unpaid help or support to a family member or friend.
Why is care demand expected to increase?
Ireland’s older population is growing. The population aged 65–84 is projected to rise by almost 60 per cent, while the number aged 85 and over is expected to more than double between 2022 and 2040.
Will family care remain important?
Yes. The ESRI describes family care as the bedrock of Ireland’s long-term care system, while also warning that expanded formal services will probably be needed.
Conclusion
The projected rise in family care need is one of the clearest signs of how Ireland’s ageing population will reshape public services and family life. With demand potentially increasing by up to 58 per cent by 2040, the focus must now turn to sustainable support for carers and accessible formal services. The central takeaway from this Breaking News development is that Ireland’s future care system will need families, communities and the State to plan together.
