Ireland’s route to the inaugural Nations Championship grand final is now extremely narrow. After five rounds, France lead the northern hemisphere group on 21 points, while England and Ireland sit on 20, with England ahead on scoring difference.
The final round takes place on Saturday, November 21st, with Ireland hosting South Africa at the Aviva Stadium. England face New Zealand earlier at Twickenham, while France meet Argentina in Paris later that evening. The results of all three matches will decide which northern hemisphere team reaches the grand final at Twickenham on Sunday, November 29th.
Ireland’s Nations Championship final permutations
For Ireland to top the northern hemisphere group, they need two things to happen: England and France must both drop points, and Ireland must collect enough points against South Africa to move ahead of them.
The simplest way to understand the situation is this: Ireland must earn at least one more league point than England and two more league points than France in the final round.
That is a difficult task, particularly because France play last and will know precisely what result they need after the matches in London and Dublin have finished.
England’s scoring difference matters
England currently have a significant advantage over Ireland on scoring difference. Their mark is plus 134, compared with Ireland’s plus 57, leaving a gap of 77 points.
As a result, matching England’s points haul may not be enough for Ireland. If both teams finish on the same number of league points, Ireland would probably need to overturn that scoring difference deficit to move above Steve Borthwick’s side.
For example:
- If England lose without a losing bonus point, Ireland would need to lose with a bonus point to finish above them on league points.
- If England draw without a try-scoring bonus point, Ireland would need to draw while claiming that bonus point.
- An England win with a bonus point would leave Ireland requiring an extraordinary result against South Africa, including a margin large enough to repair the scoring difference.
In practical terms, an England victory would make Ireland’s hopes of finishing first extremely unlikely. A convincing England win would almost certainly end the Irish challenge before France take the field.
What France’s result means for Ireland
France are in the strongest position because they lead Ireland by one point and play Argentina in the final match of the day. A bonus-point victory for Fabien Galthié’s team would guarantee first place, regardless of what happens in the England and Ireland games.
Even a French win without a bonus point would leave Ireland needing a bonus-point victory over the Springboks, followed by a major improvement in scoring difference. France currently hold a plus-80 scoring difference, compared with Ireland’s plus 57.
If Ireland lose to South Africa, their chances of reaching the final are effectively over. A losing bonus point could keep a mathematical route open, but only if France lose to Argentina by more than seven points and Ireland can overcome the resulting scoring difference.
France’s form and their position in the table mean Ireland need a highly favourable sequence of results. A French victory of any kind would leave Ireland facing a particularly demanding points and margin calculation.
Final-round fixtures and kick-off times
The decisive northern hemisphere matches will all be played on Saturday, November 21st, at the following times in Ireland:
- England v New Zealand, Twickenham – 2.10pm
- Scotland v Japan, Murrayfield – 2.10pm
- Ireland v South Africa, Aviva Stadium – 4.40pm
- Italy v Fiji, Stadio Friuli, Udine – 4.40pm
- Wales v Australia, Principality Stadium – 8.10pm
- France v Argentina, Stade de France – 8.10pm
The ordering gives France a strategic advantage. By the time Les Bleus play Argentina, they will know whether England have beaten New Zealand and how Ireland have performed against the reigning world champions.
How the Nations Championship finals weekend works
All 12 teams will return to London for finals weekend. Teams will be paired according to their finishing positions in the northern and southern hemisphere groups.
The two group winners will contest the Nations Championship grand final at Twickenham on Sunday, November 29th. The teams finishing second will play for third place, while the third-placed sides will meet in the fifth-place playoff. Equivalent pairings continue through the remaining positions.
The finals schedule begins on Friday, November 27th, with the 11th/12th-place and fifth/sixth-place playoffs. Saturday features the ninth/10th-place and third/fourth-place matches, before the seventh/eighth-place playoff and grand final take place on Sunday.
The key result Ireland need
Ireland’s clearest requirement is a strong win over South Africa, combined with England and France dropping enough points to leave Ireland ahead in the table. Anything less than that would probably leave scoring difference working against Andy Farrell’s side.
The challenge is made more difficult by the quality of the opposition. South Africa will provide Ireland with one of the toughest tests of the tournament, while France have the benefit of playing last and controlling their response to the earlier results.
Ireland remain in contention, but the arithmetic is unforgiving: they need more league points than England, significantly more than France, and possibly a substantial winning margin as well.
Conclusion
Ireland’s Nations Championship final hopes depend on a near-perfect final round. They must beat South Africa, hope England slip against New Zealand, and then need Argentina to take points from France. With the French holding the lead and England boasting a large scoring-difference advantage, reaching the inaugural grand final will require both an outstanding Irish performance and help from elsewhere.
