Fighting has reignited in northern Ethiopia, with Tigray forces reportedly taking control of Mekelle airport and clashing with federal troops in neighbouring Afar. The developments point to a serious deterioration in the Pretoria peace agreement that ended Ethiopia’s 2020–2022 war.
Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to Mekelle, Axum and Shire on 23 September 2026, citing the security situation. Reports from humanitarian, local and security sources said fighting had intensified in Afar, while the position of a small federal police contingent at Mekelle airport was unclear.
What happened in Tigray and Afar?
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and federal forces exchanged fire at Abala and Erebti in Afar, according to sources cited in reports from the region. Abala is close to the Tigray border, while Erebti lies farther inside Afar.
A former senior TPLF official claimed that Tigrayan forces controlled several locations, including Berhale, Erebti, Abala, Megale, Dalul and Konoba. Those claims could not independently establish the full extent of territorial control, but multiple sources confirmed clashes in the area.
In Mekelle, regional and security sources said Tigrayan forces had taken control of Alula Aba Nega Airport. An airport employee said staff were told to return home after being informed that the facility had been seized. Ethiopian Airlines subsequently suspended flights to three airports in Tigray.
The Pretoria agreement is under severe strain
The fighting threatens the fragile calm created by the Pretoria Agreement, signed in 2022 after a devastating conflict between Ethiopia’s federal government and the TPLF. The agreement halted large-scale hostilities, but several political, security and humanitarian issues have remained unresolved.
The previous war caused an estimated 600,000 deaths, according to African Union estimates cited in reporting on the conflict. Tigray has also struggled to recover, with around one million people still displaced and key elements of the peace process yet to be completed.
Sporadic clashes reportedly resumed in late 2025. Since then, concerns have grown over troop movements, drone strikes and the possibility that local confrontations could develop into a wider conflict.
Why the airport matters
Mekelle airport is an important transport link for Tigray’s regional capital. The suspension of commercial flights affects civilian movement, humanitarian access and the delivery of supplies. It also signals that the security situation is serious enough to disrupt regular air connections.
Air links to Axum and Shire were also suspended, increasing the practical impact beyond Mekelle. Humanitarian organisations may face greater difficulty reaching displaced communities if fighting expands or transport routes become unsafe.
A new alliance raises the political stakes
The latest clashes follow the TPLF’s announcement that it had joined a seven-group alliance known as the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival. The alliance says it aims to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government and establish a transitional administration.
The reported coalition includes groups with competing histories and political interests, among them Amhara nationalist Fano militias and the Oromo Liberation Army. Fano forces fought alongside federal troops against the TPLF during the previous war, while the Oromo Liberation Army is associated with a separate insurgency in Oromia.
If the alliance remains active, it could make Ethiopia’s security crisis more difficult to contain. The country is already facing armed unrest in several regions, including Oromia and Amhara.
Military balance and regional involvement
The federal government is understood to have expanded its military drone production since the previous war, giving it significant capabilities. The Tigray Defence Forces, however, retain weapons inherited from the TPLF’s earlier role in Ethiopia’s national security establishment, including heavy artillery and other systems documented by military analysts during the 2020–2022 conflict.
Regional tensions add another layer of risk. Conflict-monitoring assessments have alleged cooperation between Eritrean forces and Tigrayan fighters, including troop movements near western Tigray and weapons support. Ethiopia has also accused Sudan’s armed forces of providing arms and financial backing to TPLF-linked forces. Sudan has denied that allegation.
Egypt’s dispute with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has also influenced regional diplomacy. Analysts have assessed that Cairo may provide diplomatic or logistical support to Ethiopian opposition factions, although the source material did not document direct Egyptian weapons transfers to the TPLF.
What happens next?
The immediate priority is to determine whether the clashes remain localised or spread across Tigray and Afar. The most important developments to monitor include:
- whether federal forces attempt to retake Mekelle airport or other positions;
- whether Ethiopian Airlines restores or extends flight suspensions;
- whether the TPLF-led alliance expands its operations;
- whether regional governments or neighbouring states become more directly involved;
- whether African Union or other diplomatic efforts seek to revive the Pretoria process; and
- whether humanitarian agencies can continue reaching displaced people.
Claims about territorial control and military movements remain difficult to verify in real time. Further official statements and independent humanitarian reporting will be needed to establish the scale of the fighting.
Why this matters beyond Ethiopia
A renewed Tigray war would have consequences beyond the immediate battlefield. Ethiopia is one of Africa’s most populous countries and occupies a strategically important position in the Horn of Africa. A wider conflict could increase displacement, disrupt regional trade and deepen tensions involving Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt.
For civilians, the principal risks are renewed displacement, restricted access to food and healthcare, damage to infrastructure and interruptions to family and commercial links. The region’s unfinished peace process means that even limited clashes could undermine confidence in the agreement reached in 2022.
Conclusion
The reported seizure of Mekelle airport and fighting in Afar mark the most serious challenge yet to Ethiopia’s post-war calm. The situation remains fluid, but the combination of renewed clashes, political alliance-building and regional tensions raises the risk of a broader crisis. The immediate test will be whether the parties can prevent these confrontations from developing into a return to full-scale war.
