Hackers who say they breached Russia’s Federal State Statistics Service have published figures suggesting that between 393,881 and 450,100 Russian citizens may have died since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. The claims have not been independently verified, and journalists are examining whether the leaked material is authentic and complete.
The alleged breach is significant because Russia has not published official combat-loss figures since September 2022. Rosstat also stopped releasing annual data on causes of death in 2024, making it harder for researchers to assess the war’s demographic impact.
What the alleged Rosstat leak claims
The Belarusian-linked group Kiberpartizany BY and the group Silent Crow say they obtained about 23 terabytes of Rosstat data. According to their claims, the material includes internal documents, demographic records, economic statistics and information potentially connected to deaths during the war.
Kiberpartizany BY said its count reached at least 393,881 deaths as of 27 August 2026. Silent Crow reported a higher estimate of 450,100. The difference reflects how each group classified and counted deaths rather than a confirmed change in the underlying total.
- Kiberpartizany BY counted cases where military action or its consequences were recorded as the cause of death.
- Silent Crow included combat deaths, non-combat military deaths, deaths recorded as terrorist acts and some deaths involving people registered in Russia who died in occupied territories or Ukraine.
Because the figures come from hackers rather than an official Russian publication or an independently audited database, they should be treated as claims pending verification.
Why the figures matter for European news
The alleged Rosstat data could provide new insight into the human and demographic consequences of Russia’s war against Ukraine. The scale of Russian military losses remains one of the most politically sensitive and difficult-to-measure aspects of the conflict.
Russia has released no comprehensive official account of its military deaths since 2022. Restrictions on mortality data have also limited independent assessments. That information gap has left researchers relying on open-source investigations, official statements from the parties to the war and demographic analysis.
The figures also matter beyond Russia. Russian losses influence military planning, recruitment, mobilisation pressures and the wider security environment in Europe. However, estimates must be interpreted carefully: a tally of deaths is not the same as a full measure of casualties, which can also include people wounded, missing or otherwise unable to serve.
How the claims compare with independent research
The alleged leak is broadly within the range of earlier independent estimates, although that does not establish that either hacker tally is accurate.
As of 8 November, a joint database maintained by the BBC’s Russian Service and Mediazona contained about 286,000 names of Russian servicemen identified as dead. The database is deliberately based on documented names and is known to be incomplete, particularly for the most recent period of the war.
A separate study by Meduza and Mediazona, using inheritance-registry data, estimated that approximately 350,000 Russian servicemen had died by the end of 2025. These methods differ from the alleged Rosstat calculations, so the figures cannot be compared as identical datasets.
Open-source name lists generally provide a conservative minimum because they include only deaths that researchers can document. Statistical estimates can capture a wider population but depend heavily on the quality, definitions and completeness of the underlying records.
Verification remains the key question
Meduza and Mediazona have reportedly obtained access to material published by the hackers and begun examining it. Their review is expected to focus on two central issues: whether the files genuinely came from Rosstat and whether they provide a complete or reliable record of deaths.
Even authentic government records would not automatically produce a definitive total. Several limitations could affect the interpretation:
- Medical records may describe the immediate cause of death without identifying the wider circumstances.
- People reported missing may not be registered as dead for months or years.
- Different databases may use different definitions for combat, non-combat and civilian deaths.
- Records could be incomplete, duplicated, altered or deliberately falsified.
- Deaths in occupied areas may be recorded differently from deaths in Russia.
These caveats mean that the alleged Rosstat figures should not be presented as a confirmed official death toll.
What happens next
Independent journalists and data specialists will need to authenticate the files, compare individual records with public sources and assess whether the database contains systematic gaps. They may also examine metadata, document structures and statistical patterns to determine whether the material is consistent with genuine Rosstat systems.
Until that work is complete, the most accurate description is that hacker groups have claimed to uncover data pointing to hundreds of thousands of Russian deaths, while independent verification is ongoing.
The issue is also relevant to Ireland and other European countries because Russia’s war against Ukraine continues to shape European security policy, humanitarian assistance and diplomatic decisions. But the leak itself does not change any EU policy or establish a new official assessment of Russian losses.
Conclusion
The alleged Rosstat breach could become an important source for understanding the demographic cost of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but the figures remain unverified. The central question is not simply whether the totals are high, but whether the leaked records are authentic, complete and based on consistent definitions. Until that assessment is finished, the reported 393,881 to 450,100 deaths should be treated as provisional claims rather than a confirmed wartime statistic.