Former adversaries from Ethiopia’s Tigray war have announced a seven-group alliance aimed at removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government and establishing a transitional administration. The declaration raises fresh concerns about a wider conflict in a country already facing armed unrest in several regions.
The announcement came from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), whose vice president, Amanuel Assefa, said the alliance had been coordinating for more than a year. The coalition reportedly includes Tigrayan forces, Amhara Fano militias, the Oromo Liberation Army and four additional groups from three other regions.
Alliance brings former opponents together
The groups now presenting a common challenge previously fought on different sides of Ethiopia’s conflicts. The TPLF fought federal forces during the Tigray war, while Fano militias supported the government during that conflict. The Oromo Liberation Army, meanwhile, has waged a separate insurgency in Oromia.
Fano leader Zemene Kasse is expected to chair the alliance, according to Amanuel. The groups together claim links to areas covering six of Ethiopia’s 12 regional states, although the strength, command structure and operational capacity of the coalition remain unclear.
Amanuel said the alliance’s stated objectives were to remove the current government and facilitate a transitional government. He also said disagreements between the groups, including territorial disputes, would eventually be addressed through negotiations.
Renewed fears after the Tigray war
Ethiopia’s Tigray war began in November 2020 after federal forces moved against the TPLF, which had dominated national politics for decades before Abiy Ahmed became prime minister in 2018. The conflict ended with the Pretoria Agreement in November 2022.
The agreement required the TPLF to demobilise its forces and refrain from military mobilisation. According to the source report, the TPLF did not complete that process and reinstated its pre-war regional council in May, a move that further weakened the post-war settlement.
The African Union has warned that federal and Tigrayan forces have massed near the border of the Tigray region in recent months. That development has heightened fears that the fragile peace could break down again. The earlier war caused an estimated death toll of up to 600,000 people, according to the report.
Why the coalition may face difficulties
Although a coordinated alliance could force the government to confront armed opposition on several fronts, analysts have questioned whether the groups can sustain a unified campaign.
Kjetil Tronvoll, a professor of peace and conflict studies at Oslo New University College, said the coalition could present a challenge if it operated under a common military command. He also expressed doubts about whether it could maintain a prolonged war against federal forces, which possess substantial drone capabilities.
The groups’ differing political aims and history of conflict could make cooperation difficult. Amhara and Tigrayan forces remain divided over Western Tigray, a contested territory administered by Amhara nationalists since the end of the war. The alliance’s durability will therefore depend on whether its members can set aside territorial and ideological disputes.
Armed conflict continues in Oromia and Amhara
Ethiopia has experienced persistent violence in its two most populous regions, Oromia and Amhara. Federal forces have fought the Oromo Liberation Army in Oromia since 2018. The government has designated the OLA a terrorist organisation, while the group rejects the government’s authority in parts of the region.
In Amhara, Fano militias took up arms against the federal government in April 2023 after authorities moved to disarm them. Their inclusion in the new alliance could expand the geographic pressure on the government, but it also brings together forces with sharply different interests.
The announcement does not, by itself, confirm that a coordinated military offensive has begun. It remains unclear whether the alliance has a unified command, shared resources or a detailed political transition plan.
Separate violence reported in Gambella
A separate outbreak of violence has also affected Ethiopia’s western Gambella region near the border with South Sudan. Doctors Without Borders, known as MSF, said its teams treated an influx of wounded people after clashes in Itang Special Woreda on 18 September.
MSF reported receiving 88 patients at its Kule health centre. Eight patients were already dead when they arrived, while four others died after reaching the facility. The organisation said at least 12 people had been killed and dozens injured, although responsibility for the clashes had not been established.
Gambella hosts more than 400,000 refugees, most of them South Sudanese people who fled conflict in their home country. The region has experienced repeated clashes, and a 2025 Rift Valley Institute report linked rising tensions to economic pressures and the arrival of refugees.
MSF called on all parties to show restraint and protect civilians. The latest violence illustrates the wider humanitarian risks facing Ethiopia, where local conflicts, displacement and political instability overlap.
What happens next?
The immediate question is whether the seven groups can turn their announcement into sustained political and military coordination. The Ethiopian government has not been reported as formally responding to the alliance declaration in the source material.
Developments to watch include:
- whether the alliance publishes a political programme or transitional timetable;
- whether its members establish a unified command structure;
- any further troop movements around Tigray;
- new fighting in Oromia, Amhara or Western Tigray; and
- the humanitarian impact on civilians and refugees in affected regions.
The announcement is a significant warning about Ethiopia’s unresolved post-war tensions, but it does not yet demonstrate that the coalition can overthrow the government. Its practical impact will depend on cohesion among former rivals, developments on the ground and efforts to prevent further harm to civilians.
