Middle East oil exports increased in September as Gulf producers found limited ways to keep energy supplies moving through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the recovery remains incomplete, with security risks still affecting shipping and QatarEnergy continuing to suspend some liquefied natural gas deliveries to customers in Europe and Asia.
Preliminary figures from Kpler showed regional crude exports reaching approximately 16.3 million barrels per day in September, the highest monthly level since the conflict with Iran began seven months ago. That total remained well below the 19.5 million barrels per day recorded in February.
Saudi Arabia drives increase in regional oil exports
Saudi Arabia accounted for much of the monthly rise. Its exports more than doubled, increasing from about 2.45 million barrels per day in August to roughly 5.4 million barrels per day in September.
Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were projected to reach around 9.7 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia sent additional crude from Gulf terminals after attacks damaged its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea. The regional export figure also includes oil shipped from ports outside the strait.
The figures suggest that Gulf producers are adapting to the disruption, but they do not indicate a return to normal conditions. Hormuz remains a critical maritime route for global energy markets, and ships crossing the waterway continue to face significant risks.
LNG shipments resume, but Qatar deliveries remain disrupted
Several Qatar-linked LNG tankers crossed the Strait of Hormuz in September after no visible crossings were recorded in August. Ship-tracking data identified vessels carrying Qatari LNG to destinations including India, Pakistan and China.
Among the vessels tracked were:
- GasLog Skagen, carrying LNG from Qatar’s Ras Laffan terminal;
- Al Ghashamiya, which delivered a Qatari cargo to India;
- Shandong Redwood, carrying LNG to Pakistan; and
- Al Daayen, which left the Gulf with a shipment bound for China.
An empty Qatar-linked tanker, Al Mafyar, was also tracked entering the strait. The full number of crossings remains uncertain because some ships switch off their tracking systems while passing through the waterway.
Qatar is especially exposed to the disruption because every LNG tanker leaving the country must pass through Hormuz. Qatar has no alternative export route that would allow it to send its gas to international markets without using the strait.
European customers face further delivery suspensions
Although some shipping has resumed, QatarEnergy has extended delivery suspensions for selected customers in Europe and Asia. Italian energy company Edison said it had received a notice extending force majeure until early December.
Six additional LNG cargoes scheduled for Italy’s Adriatic LNG terminal will not be delivered. The number of missed cargoes since April has now reached 35, while Edison has replaced 23 of them, mainly with supplies from the United States.
Edison’s long-term contract with QatarEnergy provides 6.4 billion cubic metres of gas each year, equivalent to approximately 10% of Italy’s total gas consumption. The disruption therefore has direct implications for European energy procurement, even where replacement cargoes can be sourced.
Customers in Pakistan and Bangladesh have also been informed that delivery suspensions will continue through November. In this context, force majeure refers to a contractual provision that can allow obligations to be suspended when events outside a company’s control prevent delivery.
Damage to Qatar’s LNG capacity adds to the pressure
The wider disruption is not only a shipping problem. Attacks on Qatar’s Ras Laffan energy complex damaged two LNG production units and reduced the country’s production capacity by about 17%.
Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi said repairs could take approximately three years. He also indicated that Qatar’s 12 undamaged production units could return to normal operations within weeks if vessels were able to cross Hormuz safely and consistently.
Qatar exported just 18 LNG cargoes during the first six months of the war, compared with 509 during the same period a year earlier, according to ICIS data cited in the report. The scale of the decline highlights how heavily the country’s LNG trade depends on secure maritime access.
Why the disruption matters for Europe
European gas markets are particularly sensitive to interruptions involving Qatar because the country is a major LNG supplier and European importers rely on seaborne cargoes to diversify supply.
The September increase in oil exports may ease some pressure in crude markets, but LNG availability remains more constrained. European buyers may need to compete for replacement cargoes from the United States and other suppliers, potentially affecting procurement costs and delivery schedules.
The impact will vary by country and company. Italy is directly exposed through Edison’s QatarEnergy contract and the Adriatic LNG terminal, while other European importers may be affected indirectly through competition for alternative supplies.
For Ireland, the immediate effect is less direct because the country’s gas supply arrangements differ from Italy’s. Nevertheless, disruption in a major global shipping route can influence European wholesale gas prices and wider energy-market conditions, which may affect Irish consumers and businesses over time.
What happens next?
The restoration of regular LNG traffic will depend on security conditions in and around the Strait of Hormuz. The number of visible tanker crossings has increased, but shipping data remains incomplete and QatarEnergy has not restored all suspended deliveries.
Diplomatic efforts are also continuing. The report said Qatari mediators were pressing for talks after the United States rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the strait and end the fighting within seven days. The political and security situation therefore remains central to the outlook for oil and gas exports.
For now, the main conclusion is that Gulf energy exports are recovering only partially. Middle East oil exports have risen, and a small number of Qatar-linked LNG tankers have crossed Hormuz, but the route remains vulnerable and European customers continue to face disrupted deliveries.
