Ireland’s Nations Championship hopes remain alive, but Andy Farrell’s side must beat South Africa and rely on results elsewhere if they are to reach the inaugural final. After a bonus-point win over Fiji, Ireland sit level with England and one point behind France before the decisive final round.
The South Africa showdown in Dublin will therefore be central to the latest sports Ireland story. Ireland can still finish top of the Northern Hemisphere standings, although their route to the final is no longer entirely in their own hands.
Ireland’s Nations Championship position
Ireland moved on to 20 championship points after defeating Fiji 43-15 at the Aviva Stadium. The bonus point for scoring four or more tries kept Farrell’s team firmly in contention after France produced the weekend’s biggest surprise by beating South Africa 21-19.
France now have 21 points, while England are also on 20. Ireland’s points difference is currently plus 57, compared with plus 80 for France and plus 134 for England. That margin could become decisive if teams finish level on points.
The competition awards:
- Four points for a victory
- An additional point for scoring four or more tries
- A losing bonus point for a defeat by seven points or fewer
Only the team finishing first among the Northern Hemisphere sides will qualify for the Nations Championship final at Twickenham. The other teams will enter ranking matches against their corresponding Southern Hemisphere finishers.
What Ireland need to reach the final
A bonus-point win over South Africa
A four-try victory would take Ireland to 25 points and give them their strongest possible route to the final. However, France and England could still overtake or draw level with them.
Ireland would finish ahead of France if France fail to beat Argentina. A French victory without a try bonus would also take France to 25 points, bringing the tie-break rules into play. A bonus-point win for France would lift them to 26 points and put Ireland out of contention.
England could reach 24 points with a win over New Zealand without a try bonus, leaving Ireland above them. If England also score four tries, they would move level with Ireland on 25 points, with their superior points difference a major advantage.
A win without a bonus point
An ordinary victory would move Ireland to 24 points. That would keep qualification possible, but France would have to lose to Argentina and England would need to lose or draw with New Zealand for Ireland to finish above both rivals outright.
If England win without a bonus point, both teams would sit on 24 points. Ireland’s points difference would then make overtaking England extremely difficult, given the sizeable gap between the sides.
A non-bonus-point win could still secure second place and a place in a ranking match at Twickenham. That would be a valuable outcome even if Ireland missed the grand final.
Can Ireland qualify without winning?
There is still a mathematical route to first place without an Ireland victory, although it requires several unlikely results.
A draw against South Africa would give Ireland 22 points, or 23 with a try bonus. That could be enough if both France and England lose without collecting enough bonus points to move beyond Ireland.
Ireland could also finish top after a narrow defeat if they claim both a losing bonus point and a try bonus. That would leave them on 22 points and require France and England to lose while failing to collect sufficient additional points.
In practical terms, beating the Springboks remains Ireland’s clearest path. The more points Farrell’s side collects, the less dependent they become on the other fixtures.
Where Ireland could finish if they lose
Ireland could finish anywhere from third to fifth in the Northern Hemisphere standings. Wales can reach 20 points with a bonus-point victory over Australia, although their inferior points difference makes it difficult for them to overtake Ireland.
Scotland’s 15-12 win over Australia moved them to 15 points. A bonus-point victory over Japan would take Scotland to 20, creating a possible tie with Ireland if Farrell’s team fail to collect any points against South Africa. Scotland’s current points difference of minus eight, compared with Ireland’s plus 57, leaves them needing a dramatic swing to move ahead.
The fixtures Ireland fans must watch
- England v New Zealand: A New Zealand win would improve Ireland’s prospects before the Dublin match.
- Ireland v South Africa: Ireland will know England’s result when they face the Springboks at 4.40pm.
- France v Argentina: France play at 8.10pm and will know precisely what result they require.
A bonus-point victory for France would guarantee them first place, regardless of Ireland’s result.
Twickenham schedule and final-round outcomes
The final Northern Hemisphere standings determine Ireland’s opponent and kick-off during finals weekend at Twickenham. A third-place finish would mean a Friday, 27 November match at 8.10pm. Second place would bring a 4.40pm fixture on Saturday, 28 November, while fourth place would mean a Sunday, 29 November match at 1.10pm.
The grand final is scheduled for 4.40pm on Sunday, 29 November. Ireland can still reach it, but France and England currently hold important advantages in the race for top spot.
The key takeaway from the latest sports Ireland update is straightforward: Ireland must target a bonus-point win over South Africa, then hope at least one of their Northern Hemisphere rivals drops points. The Fiji victory preserved the possibility, but the Springboks match will decide how realistic that possibility becomes.