Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has warned lawmakers that Russia may be preparing a campaign of hybrid attacks involving drones and missiles against Poland and other countries supporting Ukraine. Speaking in the Sejm on 17 September 2026, Tusk said the coming months could bring serious security tests for Poland and its allies.
He presented the assessment as the most likely scenario for the period through early spring, arguing that late autumn and winter could become the most dangerous phase of the war in Ukraine so far. Tusk said Poland must strengthen its air defences, coordinate closely with Ukraine and ensure that NATO allies respond together to any incidents.
What Tusk said about Russia’s alleged plans
According to Tusk, Polish intelligence assessments indicate that Russia could target countries supporting Ukraine with what he described as “accidental” drone or missile strikes. The stated purpose, he said, would be to create uncertainty and discourage NATO members from invoking the alliance’s collective-defence obligations.
Tusk warned that drones or missiles could enter the territory of one or more NATO countries on the eastern flank and cause damage. He said Moscow might then portray the incident as an accident, seeking to prevent allies from treating it as deliberate aggression.
The Polish prime minister argued that repeated incidents could test NATO’s cohesion and encourage public doubts about the practical meaning of Article 5. That provision commits members to assist an ally that suffers an armed attack, although the form of assistance is determined by each member.
New concerns over faster jet-powered drones
A central part of Tusk’s address concerned Russia’s reported expansion of jet-powered drones. He said the systems travel at higher speeds and operate at greater altitudes before striking their targets, creating additional challenges for existing air-defence networks.
Tusk said few countries are fully prepared to counter this type of threat. He indicated that Poland would need to improve its own capabilities while also working with Ukraine and other partners.
The prime minister announced plans to travel to Ukraine for talks with President Volodymyr Zelensky. One subject will be cooperation through an anti-ballistic coalition, including the sharing of expertise, technical capacity and operational experience.
Why the technology matters
Higher speed and altitude can reduce the time available to detect, track and intercept an incoming weapon. The challenge is especially significant for countries that must protect large areas, critical infrastructure and border regions at the same time.
However, Tusk’s address was a warning about potential developments rather than confirmation that Russia has launched an attack on Poland or another NATO member. The source material did not provide details of a specific operational plan, target list or confirmed timetable.
Energy infrastructure and the Polish border
Tusk also said that Russia had not honoured an energy truce previously discussed by US President Donald Trump. He pointed to continuing attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and warned that some strikes were increasingly close to border crossings with Poland.
He said Russia’s broader objective was to damage Ukraine’s economy and logistics. In his assessment, potential targets include six major Ukrainian cities, defence supply stocks and railway infrastructure. Tusk also referred to the destruction of more than 300 Ukrainian railway locomotives over the preceding weeks, although the source content did not provide further detail about the reporting or verification of that figure.
Damage to transport and energy networks could have consequences beyond Ukraine by disrupting military logistics, humanitarian access, trade routes and cross-border movement. For Poland, the proximity of the fighting creates additional pressure on border security and emergency preparedness.
Political unity and NATO’s eastern flank
Tusk used the address to call for a unified political response inside Poland. He urged politicians from different parties to avoid narratives that, in his view, serve Russian interests by deepening hostility towards the European Union, Ukraine or allied countries.
He also referred to forthcoming elections in European countries and warned that Russia could seek political changes that weaken support for Ukraine or reduce confidence in European and transatlantic cooperation. His comments were directed in particular at lawmakers from Poland’s Confederation party, which he identified during the speech.
The warning reflects a wider concern about hybrid warfare. Such activity can include cyberattacks, disinformation, sabotage, instrumentalised migration, political interference and deniable military incidents. Tusk’s argument was that these tactics may be designed to create disagreement without immediately triggering a conventional armed conflict.
What happens next?
The immediate next steps outlined by Tusk are diplomatic and defensive rather than legislative. His planned visit to Ukraine is intended to discuss air and missile defence cooperation, while Poland is expected to continue consultations with NATO partners about the protection of its airspace and critical infrastructure.
Any future incident would require careful investigation before responsibility and intent could be established. An unauthorised drone or missile crossing would not automatically amount to an armed attack under NATO’s collective-defence framework. The alliance would assess the circumstances, and member states would decide how to respond.
For Ireland, which is a member of the European Union but not a NATO member, the developments remain relevant to European security, support for Ukraine and the protection of critical infrastructure. They do not create a direct NATO military obligation for Ireland. The wider consequences could include pressure on EU governments to strengthen resilience, coordinate sanctions and support Ukraine’s defensive capacity.
Conclusion
Donald Tusk’s warning places air defence, NATO solidarity and resistance to hybrid warfare at the centre of Poland’s security debate. He did not announce that an attack on Poland had occurred, but said intelligence assessments pointed to a credible risk of future incidents designed to divide Ukraine’s supporters. The planned talks with Kyiv and continued coordination among NATO allies will be important in determining how the region responds.
