Crude oil exports from the Middle East Gulf region, excluding Iran, returned to their pre-war average in September despite continuing attacks and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. The recovery highlights the growing importance of pipelines and alternative shipping routes, but oil markets remain under pressure and conditions are still far from normal.
Maritime tracking firm Kpler said exports reached at least 16.5 million barrels a day between 1 and 28 September. That matched the region’s pre-war average excluding Iran and represented an increase of 10.5 million barrels a day compared with the March average.
How Middle East oil exports bypassed Hormuz
The main change has been the use of routes that avoid the Strait of Hormuz. Before the conflict, about 17% of regional exports bypassed the waterway. By September, that share had risen to approximately 40%.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been central to the shift. Their pipeline networks allow crude to reach terminals outside the strait, reducing exposure to attacks on ships travelling through one of the world’s most important energy corridors.
- Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline links oil fields in the east with the Red Sea terminal at Yanbu.
- The UAE uses a pipeline connecting Abu Dhabi’s oil fields with Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman.
- Shipments through the Red Sea have also increased as exporters seek alternatives to Hormuz.
The figures include crude oil and condensate, as well as shipments routed through the Red Sea. Before the conflict, roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies passed through the Strait of Hormuz, making any sustained disruption a major concern for energy importers.
Oil prices remain above pre-war levels
Although export volumes have recovered, prices have not returned to their earlier levels. Brent crude futures for December delivery traded at $102.25 a barrel on Monday morning, while West Texas Intermediate was around $90.50.
Brent had been trading near $72 before the war. The difference reflects continuing concerns about shipping security, insurance costs, supply reliability and the ability of alternative routes to operate at full capacity.
A recovery in exports therefore does not mean that the global oil market has returned to normal. The region is moving more crude, but the process is more complex and vulnerable than before.
Iranian exports remain restricted
The Kpler figures exclude Iran, whose own oil exports remain affected by a continuing US blockade of Iranian ports. Iran has also continued to claim control over the waterway, while vessels travelling without its authorisation risk attack.
More ships are nevertheless passing through the strait, alongside the increased use of alternative routes. That combination has helped restore regional export volumes, but it has not removed the security risks facing commercial shipping.
Saudi Arabia and UAE pipelines
Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline resumed operations on 22 September after shutting down on 11 September following strikes launched from Iraq. The route carries oil from the kingdom’s eastern production areas to Yanbu on the Red Sea coast.
The UAE’s pipeline to Fujairah provides another strategic outlet. Because Fujairah lies on the Gulf of Oman outside the Strait of Hormuz, the route can reduce the need for tankers to pass through the most exposed section of the waterway.
OPEC+ keeps November production targets unchanged
The export data came as the seven core members of OPEC+ agreed to leave their production targets unchanged for November. The decision was in line with expectations and suggests that the group is maintaining its current approach while market conditions remain uncertain.
The seven countries produced approximately 25 million barrels of crude oil a day in August, according to OPEC’s September report. That was around 630,000 barrels a day more than in July.
Production targets and actual exports are not the same measure. Export volumes are also affected by storage, domestic demand, pipeline availability, shipping capacity and security conditions. The September figures therefore show how exporters adapted their logistics rather than indicating that all supply risks have disappeared.
What the disruption means for Europe
The developments are important for Europe because European economies depend on stable global energy markets. Even when crude exports continue, higher freight, insurance and risk premiums can feed into fuel prices and transport costs.
European importers may benefit from the availability of alternative routes, but those routes have limits. If pipelines or Red Sea shipping lanes face further attacks, or if capacity is already being used to its maximum, the market could become more vulnerable to another supply shock.
For households and businesses, the immediate effects are most likely to appear through petrol, diesel, heating and wider transportation costs. The final impact will depend on global demand, refinery capacity, currency movements and how long the security disruption continues.
What happens next in the oil market?
Markets will continue to monitor three issues closely:
- whether shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains possible at current levels;
- whether Saudi and Emirati alternative routes can maintain full capacity; and
- whether OPEC+ members alter production targets in response to prices and supply risks.
The return of Middle East oil exports to pre-war levels is a significant logistical recovery, but it is not a restoration of normal market conditions. The central takeaway is that pipelines and alternative sea routes have reduced the immediate impact of the Hormuz disruption while leaving energy prices and global supply chains exposed to further instability.
