Latvia’s centre-right United List has won the country’s parliamentary election, according to preliminary results, preserving a broadly pro-European and pro-Ukrainian direction while strengthening populist forces in the next legislature.
With more than 99.9% of votes counted, the party led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs secured 35.4% of the vote and 42 seats in the 100-member Saeima, state television reported. The result gives the United List its strongest performance since Latvia restored independence, but it is not expected to preserve the prime minister’s current coalition in its existing form.
United List records a strong election result
Kulbergs became prime minister in May and said the result exceeded expectations while matching the lead indicated by exit polls. He linked the outcome to public demands for change, economic growth and better prospects for younger generations.
The election result gives the United List a powerful position in coalition negotiations. However, parties that previously supported the government performed unevenly, and at least one coalition partner appeared set to lose its parliamentary representation. A new governing arrangement will therefore be required.
The preliminary distribution of seats points to several immediate political priorities:
- forming a coalition capable of commanding a majority in the Saeima;
- maintaining Latvia’s security and defence policy;
- addressing rising living costs and low wages;
- strengthening healthcare services; and
- responding to long-term population decline.
Security and Ukraine remain central to Latvian politics
Latvia’s parliamentary election took place against the backdrop of Russia’s continuing war against Ukraine. The Baltic state has been a member of both NATO and the European Union since 2004 and regards Russia as its main security threat.
That position has shaped Latvia’s decision to increase defence spending and support Ukraine. Most parties expected to enter the new parliament favour continued military assistance to Kyiv and a robust national defence policy.
Speaking after the result, Kulbergs described Latvia as part of Europe’s external border and argued that security depended on both economic strength and effective border regions. His comments reflected the campaign’s close connection between defence, economic resilience and national security.
What happens to military aid policy?
The Sovereign Power party was the main exception to the broad consensus. It opposed military aid to Ukraine and further increases in defence spending, while focusing its campaign on the cost of living. Preliminary results placed it in third position.
Opponents have criticised the party as pro-Russian, an allegation it does not define the wider electoral outcome. Most major parties have ruled out cooperating with it, meaning its strong performance may increase its parliamentary influence without necessarily bringing it into government.
Populist parties make gains
Latvia First, a conservative party led by a property magnate frequently compared with US President Donald Trump, appeared set to finish second. Its performance, together with the result for Sovereign Power, indicates that concerns about household finances and dissatisfaction with established political forces remain significant.
The two parties also benefited from changing voting patterns among Latvia’s Russian-speaking minority, which accounts for about one-third of the population. For many years, voters from this community rallied behind Harmony, a party broadly regarded as pro-Russian and once the country’s largest political force.
Harmony’s support collapsed in the previous election, held soon after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and it lost its parliamentary representation. The latest result suggests that its former support base is now more politically fragmented, with voters moving towards parties offering different positions on economic and security issues.
Coalition talks will determine Latvia’s next government
The United List’s result places Kulbergs in a strong negotiating position, but winning the election does not automatically guarantee a government. The party must now seek partners able to support a majority in the Saeima, while balancing differences over defence spending, Ukraine policy and domestic economic priorities.
The final political shape of the government will depend on formal coalition discussions and any confirmation of the preliminary results. Parties that share Latvia’s pro-European and pro-Ukrainian approach may be the most likely partners, although their weaker performance could make negotiations more difficult.
For the European Union and NATO, continuity on security policy would be significant. Latvia’s position on Russia, support for Ukraine and border security has importance beyond its national politics because of its location on the EU’s eastern frontier.
Why the result matters beyond Latvia
Latvia’s election is part of wider European politics shaped by three overlapping pressures: security concerns linked to Russia’s war, rising household costs and political competition over the future of national defence.
The result does not represent a rejection of Latvia’s European orientation. Instead, it combines a strong showing for the governing pro-European party with increased support for populist parties that challenge aspects of the political establishment. The next government will have to manage that tension while maintaining Latvia’s commitments to its European and transatlantic partners.
For Ireland and other EU member states, the result is relevant mainly through European security and support for Ukraine. Latvia’s future government is likely to remain an important voice among countries pressing for a firm response to Russian aggression and continued assistance to Kyiv.
What happens next?
The immediate next step is the completion and confirmation of the election process, followed by coalition negotiations. Once a parliamentary majority is assembled, Latvia will determine the composition and programme of its next government.
The central questions will be whether Kulbergs can build a new coalition, how much influence populist parties gain in parliament and whether the incoming government maintains current levels of defence spending and support for Ukraine.
Conclusion
Latvia’s election has delivered a decisive result for Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ United List, but not a straightforward path to government. The vote reinforces the country’s broadly pro-European and pro-Ukrainian course while showing that cost-of-living pressures and populist appeals are reshaping the political landscape. Coalition talks will now determine how Latvia balances domestic economic demands with its security commitments on the EU’s eastern border.
