Exit polls published on Sunday indicate heavy losses for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in two German state elections, adding to pressure on the chancellor after a difficult period for his party.
The projections are not final results, but they point to a setback for the centre-right CDU and strong performances by the Left party and Alternative for Germany (AfD). Merz said after the polls were released that he intended to remain CDU leader and chancellor for the rest of his term.
What the exit polls show
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the CDU was projected to receive 5.5% of the vote, according to an exit poll reported by German public broadcaster ARD. If confirmed by the official count, it would represent the party’s worst result in the state since the end of the Second World War.
In Berlin, the CDU was projected to finish second on 20%, behind the Left party on 24.5%. The AfD also made significant gains in the regional elections, although the source material does not provide a final projected figure for the party in either state.
Because these are exit-poll projections, they may change as votes are counted and verified by election authorities. Coalition talks and the final distribution of seats will also determine how the state governments are formed.
Why the result matters for Friedrich Merz
Friedrich Merz became chancellor 16 months ago after promising to revive Germany’s economy, which has experienced prolonged stagnation. The election projections suggest that dissatisfaction with national politics is affecting the CDU at regional level, particularly in eastern Germany.
The results follow a strong performance by the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt two weeks earlier. The party finished just short of an absolute majority in that state, producing its strongest opportunity so far to lead Germany’s first far-right regional government since the Second World War.
That performance increased scrutiny of Merz’s leadership and prompted calls within the CDU for discussions about whether the party should change direction. However, the source material indicates that no senior allies had publicly called for his resignation. Party figures had instead warned against opening divisive internal debates about personnel.
Merz says he will stay
Speaking after the exit polls were published, Merz said he planned to remain CDU leader and continue as chancellor until the end of his term. His statement was intended to draw a line under immediate speculation about his future, though the political pressure created by the regional results is likely to continue.
Merz had also cancelled a planned trip to New York for the United Nations General Assembly the following week, apparently anticipating a demanding period after the elections.
The AfD’s growing regional influence
The AfD’s gains are significant because state elections can reshape Germany’s political debate even when they do not directly change the federal government. Strong regional results can:
- Increase pressure on mainstream parties to respond to voter concerns;
- Strengthen the AfD’s position in coalition and parliamentary calculations;
- Influence debates over migration, the economy and public services; and
- Shape the political environment ahead of future national contests.
Germany’s state governments are responsible for important areas of public administration, including education, policing and aspects of regional economic policy. The final results will therefore matter both for local governance and for the balance of political forces nationally.
What happens next
The immediate next step is the official counting and certification of the results. Until that process is complete, the exit-poll figures should not be treated as final election outcomes.
Once the seat totals are confirmed, parties will assess whether a governing majority is possible. If no party has enough seats to govern alone, negotiations may begin over a coalition or another parliamentary arrangement.
At federal level, the result does not automatically remove Merz from office. His future depends on the CDU’s internal political process and the parliamentary position of the federal government. For now, his public position is that he will remain both chancellor and party leader.
What the vote means for German politics
The projections underline the difficulty facing Merz as he seeks to restore confidence in the CDU and address Germany’s economic problems. They also show the importance of regional elections as a measure of public sentiment between federal elections.
For the CDU, the challenge is to limit further losses while maintaining its position as a governing party. For the AfD, strong regional performances provide momentum but do not by themselves guarantee control of a state government. The final outcome will depend on confirmed results, seat numbers and the willingness of other parties to work with it.
Conclusion
The latest German election projections point to a major regional setback for Friedrich Merz’s CDU, particularly in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, while the AfD continues to gain ground in eastern Germany. The figures remain provisional, but they increase pressure on the chancellor and make the official results and subsequent coalition negotiations the key next steps in German politics.
