Europe is approaching winter with gas storage levels below those recorded before the 2022 energy shock, raising concerns about prices and the bloc’s ability to absorb another disruption to global supplies. EU officials say there is no immediate threat to security of supply, but lower reserves mean governments may have less room to respond if cold weather and weak LNG flows coincide.
The issue is central to current EU energy policy. Member states are trying to refill underground storage while competing with Asian buyers for liquefied natural gas (LNG), amid disruption affecting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The outcome of that race could determine how much households, businesses and electricity producers pay during the colder months.
Why EU gas storage is under pressure
Natural gas storage allows countries to buy and hold supplies when availability is higher and prices are more favourable. The gas can then be released during winter, when demand rises for heating, industrial activity and electricity generation.
Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the European Union introduced requirements designed to ensure that storage facilities are sufficiently filled before winter. The usual target is 90% by 1 November in a typical year. However, the European Commission has allowed greater flexibility for 2026, with countries able to aim for lower levels in order to avoid driving prices even higher through panic buying.
Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen has warned EU capitals that storage remains “exceptionally low” and said the flexibility to target around 80% could reduce immediate pressure on markets and refilling costs.
Hot and dry summer conditions also contributed to the problem. Higher electricity demand led some countries to use more gas for power generation, leaving less available to inject into underground reserves.
Which countries lack storage facilities?
Several EU countries do not operate their own underground gas storage sites. They include:
- Cyprus
- Estonia
- Finland
- Greece
- Ireland
- Lithuania
- Luxembourg
- Malta
- Slovenia
These countries are required to establish solidarity arrangements with other member states so they can access reserves when necessary. For Ireland, which has no domestic gas storage facility, the wider European market and cross-border supply arrangements remain particularly important.
Are EU countries running out of gas?
EU officials have said there is no immediate risk to security of supply. The European Commission has also stressed that the current situation differs from the 2022 energy shock, when Europe abruptly reduced its dependence on Russian gas. Although prices and political pressure rose sharply at that time, homes were not subjected to widespread gas rationing.
Storage levels are nevertheless lower than they were in late 2022. Industry data cited in the source showed average EU storage at about 70% on 13 September, with particularly low levels in Latvia, the Netherlands and Germany. By comparison, EU storage averaged 94.9% in November 2022 and ended that year at 83.4%, according to the Commission.
Germany’s economy ministry has said it does not expect winter shortages despite the country’s comparatively low reserves. Analysts likewise do not currently forecast a physical gas shortage. Their concern is that a smaller buffer leaves the market more exposed to unexpected supply interruptions and sudden price increases.
The next significant assessment is expected on 8 October, when the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas, known as ENTSOG, is due to publish its winter supply outlook.
Why lower storage can mean higher energy bills
Storage levels influence prices because countries must purchase more gas quickly when reserves are low. If several buyers compete for the same cargoes, suppliers can demand higher prices, particularly when Asian markets are also seeking LNG.
The Dutch TTF benchmark, a key reference price for European gas, had been trading near €30–€31 per megawatt-hour before the latest escalation in Middle East tensions. It later rose to approximately €72–€74/MWh after briefly moving above €80–€89/MWh earlier in September.
Higher wholesale gas prices can affect electricity markets because gas-fired power stations often operate as marginal generators, especially during winter. If gas becomes scarce or costly, electricity prices can rise as well. The pressure could be stronger during periods of cold weather, low wind generation or disruption affecting other energy sources.
What could happen in a severe winter?
The most difficult scenario would combine several risks:
- Unusually cold weather across Europe
- Continued disruption to LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz
- Strong competition from Asian buyers
- Weak wind generation and higher demand for gas-fired electricity
- Insufficient storage to absorb a further supply shock
Under those conditions, European countries could be forced to bid more aggressively for available LNG. That would not automatically mean households lose access to gas, but it could create a sharp increase in wholesale energy costs and place additional pressure on national support schemes.
A prolonged shortage could also become an electricity-market problem. Gas-fired plants are an important part of Europe’s power system, and reduced gas availability could limit generation while pushing prices higher.
Debate over the EU’s storage rules
The current storage framework is due to expire in 2027, prompting debate about whether mandatory filling targets should continue. Dutch officials have argued that fixed targets can place an unfair burden on countries that depend heavily on international gas flows. Gasunie, the Dutch gas infrastructure operator, has also called for planning based on the possibility of a crisis lasting several months.
The debate is not simply about storage percentages. It concerns how the EU should share the cost of preparing for emergencies, how much risk national governments should accept and whether joint purchasing can limit competition between member states.
During the 2022 energy crisis, the European Commission coordinated efforts to strengthen supplies and support joint purchasing. A deterioration in market conditions could lead to renewed calls for similar action.
What happens next?
The immediate focus will be on storage levels, weather conditions and the availability of LNG. The ENTSOG winter outlook should provide a more detailed assessment of supply risks, while EU governments will continue deciding how far to use the flexibility provided by the storage rules.
For consumers, the most direct risk is not an immediate loss of supply but higher and more volatile energy bills. Governments may again face pressure to provide subsidies, tax measures or other assistance if wholesale prices remain elevated.
The EU enters winter better prepared than it was before the 2022 crisis, according to Commission officials, but lower reserves leave less protection against an unexpected shock. The key takeaway is that Europe is not currently facing a confirmed gas shortage; it is facing a narrower and more expensive margin for error.
