Standfirst: Berliners will elect a new state parliament on Sunday in a closely fought contest between Die Linke and the CDU. Polls suggest the SPD could suffer heavy losses, while the Greens may hold the balance in coalition negotiations.
Berlin’s state election is heading into an uncertain final phase, with Die Linke and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) running almost level in recent polling. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Greens are also competing strongly, while the Social Democratic Party (SPD) is facing a sharp decline compared with the previous election.
The vote will determine the composition of the Abgeordnetenhaus, Berlin’s state parliament, and could reshape the governing coalition in the German capital. Berliners will vote on the same day as citizens in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania take part in their regional election.
Berlin election polls point to an open result
Recent surveys show no clear winner. A ZDF projection published on 11 September put Die Linke on 23%, the CDU on 21%, the AfD on 17%, the Greens on 16% and the SPD on 10%.
An Infratest dimap BerlinTREND survey showed a similar picture, with Die Linke at 21%, the CDU at 20%, the AfD at 18%, the Greens at 16% and the SPD at 12%.
These figures remain polling estimates rather than election results. The final distribution of seats will depend on turnout, constituency results and which smaller parties clear Berlin’s five per cent threshold.
- Die Linke: approximately 21–23% in recent polls
- CDU: approximately 20–21%
- AfD: approximately 17–18%
- Greens: approximately 16%
- SPD: approximately 10–12%
Possible coalitions after the vote
The current CDU-SPD coalition is not projected to retain a majority on the available polling numbers. That leaves several possible governing combinations, although coalition arithmetic can change significantly once all parties’ final results are known.
Two alliances currently appear numerically plausible:
- A coalition between Die Linke, the Greens and the SPD
- A CDU-led alliance involving the Greens and the SPD
The Greens could therefore become central to coalition talks. Their lead candidate, Werner Graf, has presented the party as a pragmatic force capable of working across political divides and has expressed openness to a progressive government. The Greens, like the CDU, SPD and Die Linke, rule out cooperation with the AfD.
CDU changes candidate as it focuses on state capacity
The CDU is campaigning on public safety, administrative reform and economic growth. Its programme includes strengthening the police and judiciary, speeding up approval procedures and expanding digital public services.
Stefan Evers, Berlin’s finance and culture senator, is the party’s lead candidate. He replaced Governing Mayor Kai Wegner as the CDU’s frontrunner after Wegner said during the summer that he would not lead the campaign again following criticism of his handling of a January power outage.
The CDU is also emphasising faster housing construction and increased home ownership as part of its response to Berlin’s housing shortage.
Housing dominates the campaign
Affordable housing is one of the main issues across the election. Berlin’s Senate Department for Urban Development, Building and Housing estimates that more than 100,000 homes are missing. The city is also expected to receive about 200,000 additional residents by 2040, creating further pressure on supply.
Political parties differ substantially over how to respond:
- The SPD proposes 100,000 new homes during the next legislative period and wants social housing to account for half of new-build projects.
- The CDU prioritises faster construction and home ownership.
- The Greens support housing organised more strongly around the public interest.
- Die Linke advocates bringing large housing portfolios into public ownership and strengthening tenant protections.
- The AfD and FDP favour private construction and reduced regulation.
Infrastructure is another shared concern. The SPD is proposing investment in roads, bridges, schools, hospitals and public transport, while several parties are calling for a more effective public administration.
Die Linke seeks a return to the Red Town Hall
Die Linke has made the largest polling gains compared with the 2023 repeat election, when it won 12.2%. Its lead candidate, Elif Eralp, is campaigning on rents, social policy and a larger role for the state in public transport and climate policy.
The party’s campaign has also been affected by a dispute over antisemitism and the Middle East conflict after an appearance by rapper Dahabflex at a campaign event organised by a Neukölln district branch. Party representatives described the performance as a mistake and rejected violence. Eralp has said she is committed to combating antisemitism and protecting Jewish life in Berlin.
AfD support has increased, but coalition options remain closed
The AfD is polling at roughly 17–18%, almost twice its 9.1% share in the 2023 repeat election. Kristin Brinker is again the party’s lead candidate, while migration and internal security are central campaign themes.
The party is calling for a halt to the admission of asylum seekers in Berlin and faster deportation of people who are required to leave Germany. It also proposes a points-based approach to allocating subsidised and state-owned housing.
Despite its polling strength, the AfD remains excluded from coalition calculations. The CDU, SPD, Greens and Die Linke have all ruled out forming a government with it.
Smaller parties face the five per cent threshold
Volt, the FDP and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) are competing to enter the Abgeordnetenhaus. Each faces the five per cent threshold.
Volt is contesting a Berlin state election for the first time and is focusing on digitalisation, administrative reform and housing construction. The FDP is campaigning for less regulation, private investment and home ownership. The BSW is polling at around 3–4% and is putting unusual emphasis for a state election on foreign and peace policy, including opposition to sanctions against Russia.
More than 1,300 campaign posters damaged
Berlin police recorded more than 1,300 incidents involving damaged campaign posters between 2 August and 16 September. According to figures reported by Bild after requesting information from police, AfD posters accounted for 801 cases, followed by CDU posters with 148.
Other recorded cases involved independent candidates or lists, Die Linke, the SPD, the Greens, the FDP, BSW, Volt and the ÖDP. The figures concern reported property damage during the campaign and do not indicate who was responsible for the incidents.
What happens after the Berlin election?
Once votes are counted, the parties that enter the state parliament will assess possible majorities and begin coalition discussions. The result may determine whether Berlin continues with a centre-right and centre-left partnership or moves towards a different governing arrangement.
The most important immediate questions will be whether Die Linke or the CDU finishes first, whether the SPD remains strong enough to participate in government, and whether the Greens become the decisive coalition partner.
The Berlin election is therefore not only a contest for first place. It is also a test of the city’s approach to housing, public services and political cooperation, with the final governing outcome likely to depend on negotiations after polling day.
